ING economists estimate that ASML's own activities could account for 1.6% of Dutch value-added in 2026, rising to 2.2% once domestic suppliers and investment are included, up from a direct share of 0.1% in 1995.
Credit: this report is based on a research note first published by ING THINK. Read the original at think.ing.com.
According to a research note published on ING THINK, the Netherlands stands out in Europe for its ability to benefit from the global tech boom, mainly thanks to ASML and the semiconductor equipment cluster around it. The note, by Marcel Klok and Bert Colijn, cites the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, which puts the Netherlands among the countries most exposed to the global AI investment cycle through trade.
The numbers
ING estimates that ASML's direct contribution to Dutch GDP rose from 0.1% in 1995 to 1.3% in 2025. Using the midpoint of ASML's own 2026 expectations, €44.5bn, the bank puts that share at 1.6% this year.
For each euro of turnover, ASML creates about 50 cents of value-added, of which ING assigns 40 cents to the Netherlands. The company accounted for about half of the turnover of the Dutch machinery industry in 2025, or €33.7bn.
The indirect effects add to that. Purchases from Dutch suppliers account for 0.3% of the economy in 2025, forecast at 0.4% in 2026, and investment adds 0.2%. R&D makes up about 57% of the sector's gross capital formation. ING puts the combined impact of the machinery industry and ASML at 3.7% in 2025.
The Nokia question
ING compares the figures with Nokia, which contributed 3.8% to the Finnish economy in 2000, excluding indirect effects, and whose share fell to 0.5% by 2011. The Dutch economy is more diversified than Finland's was then, the economists write, with pharma and IT services also adding to growth.
The note lists the risks: US restrictions already limit exports of ASML's most advanced machines to China, and the proposed Match Act could constrain Dutch exports further. Foreign inputs for the Dutch machinery industry depend heavily on Germany, the US, Taiwan and South Korea.
Ecosystem links
ING writes that ASML also strengthens the European tech ecosystem, citing its partnership with imec, its work with TNO on the photonic chip pilot line and its investment in Mistral AI. Other companies in the cluster include ASM International and BE Semiconductor Industries, with VDL Groep named as an important supplier to ASML.
What comes next
According to the note, limits to talent, space and other supply-side bottlenecks are the main concern for future growth. In 2024 the Dutch government decided to invest €2.5bn to improve the business climate for the sector. ING still expects the growth of the ASML cluster to remain a structural driver of Dutch economic growth.
Original source: ING THINK, "The Netherlands defies Europe's tech trend thanks to ASML"
